It may seem surprising, but there's truth in numbers: Trash could be a better indicator of the economy than food or gas.
On The Ed Show Tuesday night, guest host Ezra Klein highlighted a study that shows an extremely tight correlation between carloads of trash dumped per year and the U.S. GDP.
Economist Michael McDonough's research shows an 82.4% statistical correlation between the two since 2001. Compare that to the correlation between GDP and lumber (73%), GDP and petroleum (72%), and GDP and food (49%). McDonough explained that trash might be a better indicator than the other three because "it's not isolated to a single part of the economy."
"It's holistic because it's not isolated to a single part of the economy," McDonough told Marketplace. "It's people throwing things out, it's buildings being demolished—it's everything. The current levels are indicative that you may be seeing a weakness in new construction. I mean, if you're going to build a new building, there might be a building that's already there. If you buy a couch, you might be throwing out an old couch. If you go out to McDonald's and you buy something, you're going to throw something out."
Klein pointed out that the trash line in the graph takes a dive in the third quarter of this year—which, he says, could a) be a bad indicator for the future of the U.S. economy, b) show that trash has become detached from the GDP in this correlation, or c) show that the hypothesis really is "just garbage." (His joke, not ours!)
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I'm a sucker for statistical games. Ezra puts them out with a touch of style. As far as being an indicator of the economy, I would feel the need to say it would only be an incidental indicator, except, I really want to believe that McDonough has something here. Maybe if we paid attention to it, we might do a better job of taking care of our trash. Be less materialistic. Oh well, one can hope. Meanwhile I am going to now measure my daily output of stuff vs the amount of money/wealth I have accumulated that day. I'll use a compactor and go by weight. Guess this hypothesis requires me to do this for 11 years to see how it matches. I'm going to go and drink some wine and try to forget all of this.
This is totally logical. It sounds like good science/statistics.
Trash talk seems to be in great supply!
While writing about trash and the correlation between its amount and the state of the economy we should take this one step further. We can acknowledge that much methane is created from trash overtime. We also need to acknowledge that we can produce much of our electricity from mini-generator systems or cogeneration systems. Large dairy farms with hundreds of cows produce tons of liquid manure each day. This manure can be turned into methane gas that runs a local generator to produce much of that dairy farms electricity. Dairy farms are big consumers of electricity and these million dollars cogeneration systems pay for themselves within just a few years.
Cogeneration systems are one of the most overlooked ways of producing electricity in the United States. Any firm that uses lots of fossil fuels during the manufacturing process produces large quantities of waste heat that just goes up the chimney and off into the atmosphere. We need to have a huge national energy program that has cogeneration systems added everywhere it is feasible. Good engineers can find many applications for cogeneration systems. The state of Ohio has large numbers of manufacturing plants. It has been estimated that if the waste heat that goes up the chimney were trapped and turned into steam to generate electricity Ohio could get nearly all of its electricity from these cogeneration systems. Instead of green energy writers have called cogenerations systems "grey energy". The payback time for these cogeneration systems is fast at about three to five years. Think of how much more efficient we could make our industries if we used cogeneration systems on a massive scale. We also need to hook these cogeneration systems into the electrical grid and make the utility company buy the electricity from the firm with a cogeneration system that produces extra electricity for immediate use into the grid and off to the consumer. Here are some ideas for harnessing this potential:
1. We need to have in place a legal and regulatory framework that cuts through red tape and wasteful bureaucracy to install cogeneration systems across the country. We should have generous long term tax credits that pay for a lot of the upfront costs of these cogeneration systems.
2. We need to do this on a nationwide basis. We can also add these cogeneration systems any farm, plant, or industrial site that uses large amounts of fossil fuels in a manufacturing or business application. Places like foundries, steel mills, and large machine shops, maybe feasible applications for cogeneration systems.
3. We really need to look at mandating combined cycle applications for the increased number of modern natural gas power plants. Combined cycle applications work similarly to cogeneration systems by using waste heat to generate electricity.
As with so many things in America we need to come up with thinking from one head rather than having 50 states with 50 different programs. We should standardize our tax policies, cut through red tape, and put in cogeneration systems on a wartime or emergency mobilization basis. We have the technology to make this program work by starting public-private corporations to sell bonds to help small businesses and companies install these cogeneration systems. What we lack is a clear coherent national energy policy that gets the job done General Groves, Manhattan Project style. I much prefer the Army Corps of Engineer style of getting the job done with a hard charger like General Groves in charge making decisions, meeting deadlines and putting the fear of God into none believers and obstructionists. General Groves got the atomic bomb built on schedule for use on Japan to end the war. What I hate about today's America are all the wrangling, bitching, and fighting we do amongst ourselves. We know we need a national energy policy to reduce our consumption of fossil fuels. Some days I think another Yom Kippur war that gives us $200 per barrel of oil would be a wonderful thing because it would focus our energy brains that we Americans sit on all day long. Where is General Groves when you need him? Why not make cogeneration systems the new Manhattan project?
Rex - There are some great pilot projects that have demonstrated the efficacy of energy reclamation in a few landfills and in numerous institutional farms. Where there is an economic ROI, I'm all for it.
Where you lost me was "We need to have a huge national energy program". We don't need a huge government-funded, pork-barrel laden, politically driven energy program. At the most, we need some pilot products and research efforts focused on the creation of technologies/programs that achieve very fast, very demonstrable ROIs on energy reclamation. Capital (right now) is very cheap. Interest rates are at an all time low. If the technology can produce a predictable positive ROI, the market will take over.
The real enemy of energy reclamation and "green energy" is cheap carbon. As long as it is cheaper to dig something, anything, out of the ground to create energy, there is no amount of "big government" programming that will move the needle. So the only government support should be in the form of technology R&D that attacks the fundamentals of that economic problem - getting reclamation and "green" energy to be efficient and cost-effective enough to compete with carbon. Until reclamation and other green energy can cross that threshold, it's a waste for government to do anything more, because they're just fighting and distorting the markets. That never works. And once thta threshold HAS been crossed, the government won't have to do much of anything because the markets will take over. Case in point is the horribly unproductive and wasteful investments made to date by our government in "green energy". Just throwing our money (and the money of our future generations since much of it is borrowed) into the trash can.
Bottom line up front: The wisest government on energy policy is conservatives politician Chancellor Angela Merkel's Germany. Germany recently produced 50% of its electricity from solar power. Germany also is a world leader in efficient wind farms in the North Sea. Wind energy and solar energy are being connected to a smart grid that runs through the industrial Ruhr and goes all the way to Bavarian cities like Munich. The Germans also have aggressive bio mass fuel programs similar to cogeneration systems that produce both heat and electrical power for specific local applications. Germany has had a long term investment strategy for ICE bullet trains, commuter rail, universal bus service between towns and cities. Germans use one half the amount of oil per capita than Americans do. So what if Germans pay $8 per gallon for fuel? Most Germans drive turbo-diesel cars that get 50 MPG. You can also forget the car and ride on the bus, train, bullet train, or bicycle to go anywhere you need to go at a reasonable price. Germans like their mass transit system and invest regularly to maintain and upgrade it making the system more efficient. The Germans show what modern planning investments in technology for green energy can accomplish with proper investments. The Germans make green energy work by long term investments that guarantee price supports. Remember too that Germany does not need a huge military to guarantee its oil supply lines either so all the money Germans invest in green energy stays in Germany. Germany I deeply respect and admire for their business know how and energy efficiency. The Germans are a model for energy efficiency and mass transit that we Americans need to look at closely because Germans are at least 20 years ahead of most Americans.
"...insideclimatenews.org/breaking-news/20120527/germany-sets-solar-power-record-50-electricity-demand"
If you would like to talk about money being wasted that would be fine. We just got done spending $4 trillion long term on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Professors Linda Bilmes and Joe Stiglitz have a book out called the "Three Trillion War". These two wars plus much of the military activity in the Horn of Africa region are a result of the geopolitics of securing our oil supplies from extremely volatile and unstable parts of the world. The costs of wars don't just end after the troops come home they go on for decades afterwards. Bilmes and Stiglitz did a good job compiling these long term costs: care for veterans with brain trauma or PTSD. Army and Marine Corps units that need hundreds of billions of dollars worth of reset costs for equipment, and on it goes. The only reason these wars happened is because the U.S. government subsidizes the gas guzzling SUV ways of Americans.
www.threetrilliondollarwar.org/
I was on active duty for 20 years and nearly all that I did during this time centered on the Middle East. We were constantly at war in Iraq from 1991 through 2003 enforcing the "No Fly Zones". It was not just Operation Desert Fox it was a continuous bombardment campaign that probably killed a good many thousands of Iraqis but also the UN sanctions led to malnutrition for a whole generation of Iraqi children. Remember the War on terror? 9-11 is just a long list of terrorism and counter strikes that started right after the Persian Gulf war where 250,000 American troops marched around Saudi Arabia that has the Haf to Mecca and Medina. Most Muslims around the world were deeply offended by our military presence in the Gulf region. The war on terror with al Qaida started under President Clinton. The U.S.S. Cole, the Khobar tower attacks, the attacks on the two U.S embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, cruise missile bombings in Sudan and many other events are all related to our fuel guzzling ways in America. I can go on and on like this but remember to link Big Oil, the military, and Wall Street because they are all they same animal betting on a world of continuous fossil fuel usage.
"....historyguy.com/no-fly_zone_war.html#.UDUhS6OcJhY
If you like more wasteful numbers here are the estimated costs for continuous deployment of aircraft carrier task force groups to the Persian Gulf region. We spent about $7.3 trillion from 1976-2007 on deploying these task forces to the Persian Gulf region. We also have considerable naval units permanently tied down around the Horn of Africa for several decades or even longer. The eastern Mediterranean has seen considerable America presence since the time the British pulled out which has went on since 1948. The $7.3 trillion spent over three decades would have been much smarter spent on green energy and energy conservation measures here at home in America. All of this money is urinated away never to be seen in America again.
www.princeton.edu/oeme/articles/US-miiltary-cost-of-Persian-Gulf-force-projection.pdf
"...content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/post/2010/04/study-middle-east-oil-scecurity-cost-us-78-trillion-over-last-three-decades/1#.UDUvWaOcJhY"
Carbon is only cheap because the federal government subsidizes many of the health, environmental, and military costs associated with burning fossil fuels. The U.S. government has subsidized oil and gas companies for over a century. Remember, we only have 2% of the known oil reserves and consume about 20% of the world's oil annually. When you go to the pump to buy fuel at a gasoline station the federal government is subsidizing fuel to the level of $11 to $15 per gallon. Medical and environmental costs are a big drain on society. Burning fossil fuels on the level that we do causes large costs for society. Air pollution is a known killer causing asthma and respiratory ailments. The military costs are a huge part of this this hidden number of pollution with health and environmental costs carried by the government and the public.
www.cbsnews.com/2100-215_162-6767046.html?pageNum=2&tag=contentMain;contentBody
I wish I had time to write about peak world oil production, the rise of the Asian-Pacific rim countries, and global warming. Check out Professor William F. Deffeyes "Beyond Oil." This book explains peak oil as predicted by the late Professor Hubbert, and academic and oil geologist for 50 years who predicted peak U.S. domestic production in 1970. Hubbert also predicted world peak oil production in the first decade of the 21st century somewhere between 2006 and 2009. Here are some articles that substantiate Hubbert's lifelong work.
"....peakoil.com/generalideas/seven-myths-deniers-use-to-debunk-peak-oil-debunked/"
"...dieoff.org/page140.htm."
www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/08/05/the_ministry_of_oil_defense?page=full
"...truecostblog.com/2009/07/14/is-peak-oil-real-a-list-of-countries-past-peak/"
If we fail to get off of imported OPEC oil we will face nothing but more warfare, continued military deployments, trillion dollar wars, terrorism, and an economy ravaged by the volatile vicissitudes of a world global oil market. We have suffered 50,000 casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan at a long term cost of $4 trillion. How many more American casualties will we have to suffer in the next trillion dollar war for a $200 barrel of oil? Angela Merkel understands all of this and Germany does not need aircraft carrier battle groups to get involved in future wars for oil. The Germans will just build more solar, wind, smart grids, bullet trains, and biomass fuel projects. The Germans have the most efficient economy on the face of the earth and the wisest leaders as well. We could do very well by just copying most of what the Germans do, especially for our densely populated areas. We should build offshore wind farms as eternal sentries against the ravages of imported oil and the death, killing, and human misery it brings to our society every business day.
Ezra blind is a fool.
The economy is in the tank.
Over 8% unemployment for over 42 months.
Over 41 million people on food stamps.
Over 21 million people out of work.
Sense obone-head took office, there are fewer companies, fewer banks, fewer people working.
Wake up ezar blind.
First you suould be a good judge of who should be called a fool.....The fact is what what does any of this stuff you listed have to do with the subject.
Speaking of blind, I guess you are the authority on that subject as well.
Speaking of blind, I guess you are the authority on that subject as well.
Using trash collection as an economic indicator is a real reach at best.
You would be better off having a few chicken bones, some small racks, a feather or 2, then toss all that up in the air and see how it all lands, and the way it lands is your indication of how the economy is doing.
I guess ezar blind has never seen Carl Quintanilla's special on "Trash".
The one thing about the trash business, it's aways picking LOL.
well, obviously the people who sit around and do these kind of surveys did not have common sense. Truly poor people do not throw out anything unless it is broken, damaged or pissed on by the family dog. If the economy is bad and the people have high unemployment and consumer confidence is not good, people will not buy non-essential items;therefore; nothing will be thrown away. You can't even find used furniture right now or good stuff at the thrift store. That should be an indicator of the economy not trash since the economy is trashed right now. This article is insulting, someone who needed money could have been paid for contributing to an article about the economy. You should have called me. I would have told you.
Salvatiion Army donations and the like down, Thrift Store good stuff down, hand me downs from neighbors, friends, employers and family very little. Talk to the poor, people stay away from bright eyed educated geeks with nothing to do.
Hey, have all of you Obama worshippers seen the latest CBO report:
***Congress' nonpartisan budget analysts are projecting a $1.1 trillion federal deficit for 2012, the fourth straight year the government's shortfall will exceed $1 trillion.
More great news as a result of the Obama way of fixing things. Why don't we elect him for another 4 years of this.....NOT!!!!
Johnny, Obama and his supporters don't care about the deficit. As far as the're concerned, all things good come from the governmet, and the more, the better.
You 2 are the fools. Remember Dickie said, on camera, "deficits don't matter." Wasn't good old dickie a Republican? Thought so. In the GOP, deficits only matter when a Democrat is in the WH. Hypocritical isn't it?
George W. Bush is responsible for much of the current deficit. Bush took a surplus of $150 billion and a national debt of $5 trillion and in his last budget of fiscal year 2010 he left a national debt of $11 trillion and a budget deficit of $1.3 trillion. We also had huge sums that had to be spent on TARP and the stimulus because the GOP deregulation of the Glass-Steagall Act led directly to the 2008 financial crisis that forced the Federal Reserve to take about $16 trillion in loan guarantee actions. Bush spent huge amounts of money in Iraq and Afghanistan long term at about $4 trillion. The Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 also added trillions of dollars more to the national debt. Much of what President Obama inherited is unprecedented for a modern president because we were in the worst economy since the Great Depression. Wall Street's economy has been stabilized but the ravages of 2008 live on with middle class under siege from home foreclosures, sluggish job growth, and the problems caused by all of the debts left by the Bush administration. Much of Bush's policies have meant trillion dollar deficits for many more years to come regardless of what President Obama would have done.
These tax cuts were extended by President Obama in the belief that Republicans would work with him to solve the economic problems our country was facing. Instead we got Senator McConnell saying he wanted to make President Obama a one term president. The American Jobs Act and the Small Business Tax Credit bill together would have created to saved about three million jobs total. The GOP obstructionism in the House and the filibustering in the Senate stopped both of these badly needed jobs bills. So when you are wondering why the economy is so sluggish just look in the mirror and read my lips: "GOP".
Yeah right, Obummer has done nothing over the past 3 years has he.
Keep blaming Bush & the GOP for the failed policies of Ohammerhead.
If Obump-his-chops owned a mortuary, no one would die!
Onumbnuts thinks taxing the rich will cure the economy, that didn't work in the 30's why would it work today?
Moocow: The GOP in the Congress has not worked with President Obama on any of the numerous jobs bills that would have put Americans to work. Go read the Constitution where it says all spending bills must originate in the House of Representatives. Congress has to be a partner with the executive branch in order to get anything done. All the radical Tea Party/GOP in the House does is obstruct. Mitch McConnell in the Senate filibusters everything he can so the country's routine business does not get done. Congress's approval rating of 10% stems in large part due to GOP obstructionism.
Wall Street corporations are making record profits but Main Street businesses are hurting because of lack of middle class demand. Until we invest more in our infrastructure, straighten out the home foreclosure crisis, and start working together to create more jobs for the unemployed our economy will languish. We can not build a better America as long as radical right winged conservatives run the GOP. The GOP right winged Tea Party is setting America up to fail by its endless filibustering, obstructionism, and failure to make millionaires and billionaires pay more in taxes. President Obama is a mostly centrist to moderate Democrat in his policies. The GOP has went from being a mainstream conservative party that used to negotiate and compromise with Democrats to get country's business done to becoming a radical right winged extremist party of intolerance, hatred, obstructionism, and has become anti-American in its suicidal political agenda. China will kick our butts in the global business economy at this rate and we can blame the GOP for our problems not getting solved. President Obama has bent over backwards trying to work with Republicans.
If his assumptions are correct, all Obama has to do is create more government regulations on packaging, he can triple our trash output, and create a booming recovery. They all ready put it in a bottle, place that in a box, and then rap in in plastic. Today we have three time the amount of trash from a single product than we did when I was a kid.
Something tells me the 45 million on food stamps under Obama could careless about how much trash there is.
Speaking of trash its time to take it out, vote democrat.
The republican and their trash talk and action are in to much supply. Junk it.